Power laws, on-chain formulas, AI-driven forecasts — Bitcoin price prediction has turned into a science fair of competing methods. Problem is, the more complex these models get, the more they risk just memorizing past market noise instead of capturing anything real. Scarcity math and address activity are neat inputs, but neither halving schedules nor ML curve-fitting change the fact that markets are messier than any formula admits. Worth remembering next time a chart promises certainty.